There has been a warning of a potential measles outbreak in London, with the potential to affect tens of thousands of people.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned that low levels of vaccination in London could lead to a significant increase in measles cases.

Mathematical calculations estimate that an outbreak could impact a range of 40,000 to 160,000 individuals.

Immunisation rates in the rest of the UK are high, leading to a low risk of a major epidemic elsewhere.

The UKHSA emphasized the importance of urgently vaccinating children, teenagers, and young adults.

In the UK, MMR vaccination rates have hit a 10-year low, leaving approximately 10% of children unprotected against measles, mumps, and rubella by the time they begin primary school.

Immunisations saw a decline due to disproven claims of a link between the MMR jab and autism, which were later discredited. The doctor responsible for these claims, Andrew Wakefield, was struck off the medical register.

The prediction for the spread of measles in London is concerning as it suggests tens of thousands of cases due to the contagious nature of the disease.

There has been a significant increase in measles cases this year compared to the previous year, with 128 cases reported already, compared to 54 cases in 2022.

The latest risk assessment indicates that the R number, which refers to the rate of transmission of a virus, has reached or is approaching 1.0. This is a critical threshold where the virus can start spreading rapidly.

The assessment points out that young adults, particularly those between the ages of 19 and 25, are the most vulnerable when it comes to the autism scare. University students are of particular concern.

‘Very real risk’

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) warns that a significant outbreak could strain the healthcare system, as a substantial percentage of infected individuals may require hospitalization.

Dr. Vanessa Saliba warns of potential large outbreaks in London due to low vaccine uptake.

Vaccinating against diseases like measles is crucial to protect not only ourselves but also the more vulnerable members of our society. It is important for those who have missed their MMR vaccines to get vaccinated without delay.

Measles vaccination rates have been negatively impacted globally due to Covid-19 disrupting normal healthcare services.

The risk of the virus being imported into the UK increases due to outbreaks in South Asia and Africa.

The NHS is launching catch-up programmes for vaccines and parents are encouraged to ensure their children are up-to-date with their immunizations.

Measles vaccine

Measles starts as a cold and is followed by a rash, with potential serious complications.

Measles is a highly dangerous infection, as mentioned by Prof Beate Kampmann from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. She stated that out of every 1,000 children who contract measles, one or two will tragically lose their lives due to the disease.

“To avoid deaths, serious cases and a community outbreak, 95% of the population needs to have been vaccinated against this infection, but our current coverage is well below this target.”

In the UK, it is recommended for children to receive the first dose of the MMR vaccine by their first birthday and the second dose by the time they are three-and-a-half years old.

Vaccination provides lifelong protection against measles and helps prevent the spread of the virus to others.

Jane Clegg, Regional Chief Nurse for the NHS in London said: “If you have any questions or concerns, please get in touch with your GP practice or local pharmacist for advice. Now’s the time to act to protect yourself and your loved ones from measles.”